Ask the Rabbi with Rabbi Chaim Mintz
I have heard of rabbis who try to calculate the exact time of the arrival of Mashiach (The Messiah). But I’ve also heard that the Talmud speaks strongly against this. How do we understand those who make these kinds of predictions?
Rabbi Chaim Mintz responds:
Talmudic Warning Against Calculations
Indeed, the Sages expressed strong opposition to attempts to calculate the time of the redemption (keitz). As the Talmud (Sanhedrin 97b) declares: “May the very essence of those who calculate the End [of days] suffer in agony.”
Yaakov Avinu’s Hidden Revelation
Chazal (Our Sages) (Pesachim 56a) teach that when Yaakov Avinu (our Patriarch Jacob) gathered his sons around him as he lay on his deathbed, he intended to reveal the time of the ultimate redemption. But before he could do so, the Shechinah (Divine Presence) suddenly departed from him. Yaakov understood this as a sign that Hashem wanted the date of the redemption to remain hidden.
Daniel’s Secrets Remain Sealed
Similarly, the Talmud (Megillah 3a) relates that after Yonatan ben Uziel translated the Nevi’im (Books of Prophets), he sought to continue with the translation of the Ketuvim (The Writings). But a Heavenly voice warned him not to, because of the Book of Daniel, which contains allusions to the date of Mashiach’s arrival—a secret that should remain hidden.
Why Some Rabbis Still Calculate
Despite these seemingly definitive sources, some prominent rabbis over the years have attempted to calculate the arrival of Mashiach. They argued that a key distinction exists between the era of Chazal and our own. Chazal lived in a time far from the keitz, when revealing a distant date could have led to despair. Something thousands of years away is hard to grasp and can feel irrelevant. But as history progresses and we move closer, calculations would yield a much nearer date—something people can relate to, and even draw encouragement from.
The Malbim’s Journey Analogy
The Malbim explained this idea with the following analogy: A father and son embark on a long journey. After a little while, the child asks, “When will we arrive?” Since they are still far from their destination and the answer would only dishearten the child, the father avoids giving a definitive answer and simply says, “We’ll get there eventually.” But as they draw closer, with only a few days remaining, the father gives a more specific answer, saying, “In just a few days,” knowing that this will encourage his son.
And although many of these predictions came and went and Mashiach is still not here, that does not mean they were entirely mistaken. It is quite possible that events took place that were steps in the process of redemption.
Who May Calculate?
However, only a truly great sage would be qualified to attempt such a calculation. Moreover, most rabbis throughout the generations refrained from doing so, maintaining that this knowledge is to remain hidden even today.
Be’itah Achishenah—Hastening vs. Deadline
It is also important to note that even the predetermined time for the arrival of Mashiach is merely a deadline, and he can still come sooner. In Yeshayah (60:22), Hashem declares about the redemption: “be’itah achishenah—in its time, I will hasten it.” This appears contradictory: will the redemption come at its predetermined time (be’itah), or before (achishenah)?
The Talmud (Sanhedrin 98a) resolves this by explaining that both are true. If the Jewish people are not worthy, Mashiach will come at the final, allotted time. But if we are deserving, the redemption will come earlier, hastened by our merits.
Our Practical Role
So rather than trying to calculate the latest possible time Mashiach could come, we should turn our attention to what we can do to help bring him sooner. By learning Torah, observing mitzvot (Torah commandments) properly, and davening (praying) sincerely for his arrival, we can play a part in hastening the redemption.
In Short
Although the Talmud warns against calculating Mashiach’s arrival and many rabbis maintain that this remains in effect today, as we near the keitz, some rabbis permit it. Our focus should be on what we can do to bring Mashiach closer—increased Torah study and enhanced mitzvah performance.
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